Don’t believe the numbers. The age of the gas guzzler is coming to an end.

First the bad news, then the electrification story that might surprise you.

This Volt has a lighter LG Chem battery (by 9.8 kg) with better chemistry and a lower centre of gravity. The cost of lithium ion batteries dropped 35 per cent last year.

Yes, Canadians are loading up on fuel-swilling light trucks at a ferocious rate. Truck sales are up 14.6 per cent this year in Canada, says DesRosiers Automotive Consultants – and car sales are down 7.7 per cent. Fuel is cheap, right? So we’re binging on gas guzzlers.

At the expense of small cars, in fact. Subcompact sales are down 14.4 per cent, compacts down 5.1 per cent. Thirsty big pickups? Up 11.6 per cent for 2016.

And if you are cheerleader for plug-ins cars and a climate change worry-wort, here’s a really depressing number: 20,000. In the entire history of plug-in vehicle sales in this country, Canadians have bought a total of 20,000 of them, according to GreenCarReports.com. That’s not 20,000 a year; that’s 20,000 in total.

True, the pace of plug-in sales is picking up, with GreenCarReports.com predicting we’ll hit 30,000 total plug-in sales by July 2017. But in a market where Canadians buy 2.0 million new light vehicles annually, sales of 5,000 plug-ins per year amount to less than a blip.

We’re binging on gas-guzzlers. Sales of the F-Series pickup are up nearly 26 per cent this year, notes DesRosiers Automotive Consultants. The F-series is the most popular vehicle in Canada.

In all of April, the month for which total vehicle sales are available, Canadians bought 883 plug-ins. The top four sellers: Chevrolet Volt (260); Tesla Model S (110); Nissan Leaf (152); Volvo XC90 PHEV (69). Smart sold exactly one fortwo EV, Porsche sold two Panamera SE hybrids.

So why should any of us believe that we’re on the cusp of a plug-in sales explosion? Why should any of us believe that EVs (electric vehicles) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are a “when” not an “if?” And that “when” is no more than a decade away?

Here’s why:

• A flood of new plug-in models is heading to dealer showrooms.
• The cost of batteries will drop dramatically and soon.
• Government regulators are insisting on a shift to plug-ins.
• The boom in connectivity and autonomous vehicles is driving technology towards electrification.
• Bubbling under the surface – especially among younger buyers — is an incipient public desire to clean up the fleet of personal vehicles.

These and other developments will drive down prices. Within just a few years, you can expect to buy an EV for about $20,000 — before taxpayer subsidies. Let’s start with batteries. Business Insider notes that the price of lithium-ion batteries fell 35 per cent last year. That matters because batteries account for about one-third of the cost of an EV.

Ford executive chairman Bill Ford: Ford is investing $4.5 billion (US) to add 13 new EV models by 2020. Forty per cent of Ford’s lineup will be electrified by 2020.

The investment firm Goldman Sachs calls lithium “the new gasoline,” adding in a December 2015 note, “thanks to technology breakthroughs, favorable policy and supportive public opinion, electric vehicles (EVs) appear poised for a sustained period of superior growth with our autos team estimating 22% EV penetration (BEV, PHEV, and HEV combined) in 2025 from under 3% today.”

And while lithium-ion batteries are for now in great favor, other battery technologies such as vanadium flow are also coming online. The point is, improved technologies and competitive pressures are causing battery costs to plunge dramatically, which means EV costs will plummet, too.

Then there is the volume part of the story. At present, some 18 plug-in models are sold in Canada, but at least 25 new ones will be introduced in the next 24 months. Every global car company and a number of interesting new start-ups (Faraday Futures) have a flood of plug-ins in the product pipeline.

Mainstream models include the coming Chevrolet Bolt due later this year and a new-generation Nissan Leaf coming sometime in the first half of next year. Both General Motors and Nissan with its Renault partner have made well-documented commitments to plug-ins.

Volvo’s revival plan has at its core the electrification of the entire lineup.

But there is much more to this story. Ford Motor has said it is investing $4.5 billion (US) to add 13 new EV models by 2020. Forty per cent of Ford’s lineup will be electrified by 2020.

Daimler, reports www.just-auto.com, plans to spend about $10 billion on “green” technology in the next two years alone. Among the new plug-in hybrids being rolled out by Mercedes-Benz: a GLC coupe and the E350e, both planned for certain markets this year. An S500e update is coming in 2017.

“No other manufacturer offers a comparable range of electrified vehicles and solutions in the field of electric mobility,” says Daimler R&D chief Thomas Weber.

Mercedes-Benz R&D chief Thomas Weber gets the license for an E-Class that will be tested as an autonomous vehicle in Nevada.

Daimler plans to introduce additional electric vehicles by 2020, spanning the entire range of Mercedes cars, all of which will have a range of 500 kilometers, reports Bloomberg, adding that Merc’s EV owners will be able to recharge their cars for a 100-kilometre journey in roughly the same time it takes to fill up a gasoline car. Look for details this fall at the Paris motor show.

And on and on. Hyundai and Kia, for example, have outlined a comprehensive electrification plan. Honda and Mazda are now moving quickly on the plug-in front, too. As are luxury brands such as Jaguar Land Rover.

But it’s fair to argue that the biggest electrification push will come from the Volkswagen Group. A humbled VW has announced a massive EV push.

VW is reinventing itself with a new EV commitment in part as a response to the “diesel-gate” scandal, but also because government regulators around the world are demanding massive reductions in emissions by 2025.

Audi Q7 e-tron 3.0 TDI quattro. In response to “diesel-gate,” Audi is making a commitment to electrification — including a $2 billion (US) fund that will in large part be spent building an EV charging infrastructure along the lines of Tesla’s supercharger network. 

“It’s simple — the CO2 legislation in the various regions will mean every OEM is compelled to offer e-mobility,” said Thomas Lieber, head of complete vehicle development for VW’s electrified cars, told Automotive News.

By 2020, the VW Group expects to add 20 new electric and plug-in hybrid cars, including two Tesla fighters — Porsche’s Mission E electric car and the Audi e-tron quattro, the brand’s first mass production EV, notes the industry publication.

What makes VW’s commitment far more interesting, though, is the company’s recent $15 billion (US) settlement in the U.S. to address fines and lawsuits and provide for other compensation after being caught rigging diesel emissions tests. Tucked into the agreement is a commitment to spend $2 billion (US) to create a network of EV re-charging stations and hydrogen re-fueling stations in the U.S.

VW, then, will build a charging network to rival Tesla’s vaunted supercharger network. Some $800 million (US) will be spent in California alone, while another $1.2 billion (US) will go to extend the network right across the U.S.

We can only hope that the Canadian settlement expected to be announced next month will contain similar plans to boost the EV charging network in our country – where some 81 per cent of electricity comes from “clean” sources.

For the 2016 model year, LEAF adds a number of significant enhancements – beginning with a new 30 kWh battery for LEAF SV and LEAF SL models that delivers a more range. An all-new Leaf is due early next year. The Leaf is the world’s best-selling EV.

A reasonable and user-friendly charging network has been seen as a major barrier to consumers adopting EVs – that along with costs. Costs are going down, as we’ve seen. Charging networks are coming in a major way. And the car companies are stepping up with fleets of new plug-in models that promise to be cost competitive with gasoline and diesel models today.

Yes, we’re binging on gas-guzzlers today. But the end of the gas guzzler is coming within the decade. Electrification is the future and that future is only a few years away.