Shares of General Motors are trading at about their 52-week as I write this – with above average investor interest. Why?

GM is attempting to transition from gas guzzlers to EVs. The old Saturn plant in Spring Hill, Tenn., will make Cadillac EVs, not pickups.

Well, there’s news of a renewed commitment to electrification, deeper tie-ups with Honda Motor on the EV front, and a “buy” or “strong buy” recommendation of 15 of the 19 analysts who follow the stock (the other four are a “hold”).

GM? That old legacy automaker, bankrupt just a decade ago? A hot stock?

GM, famous for half a century of over-promising and under-delivering as darling of investment analysts? Unbelievable.

GM, that old, mismanaged collection of car brands that has ridden fat profits from pickups and SUVs (sport-utility vehicles) for a quarter century, wasting leads in hydrogen fuel cells (electrified) cars, pure battery-electric EVs — a “buy?”

GM killed killed the electric car, no? And now investors appear anxious to buy into GM’s plans to ride the EV wave lifting the entire car business? The world is upside down.

(Just to be clear, I do not own or trade in car company shares; I have none of my own skin in this game and I am not a stock promoter.)

GM’s latest electrification push has actually been half a decade in the making, though progress has been accelerating fast during the last year. The latest catalyst appears to be a report from ResearchandMarkets.com which projects the global hydrogen fuel cell market will explode from $15.6 billion to $25.5 billion by 2025.

Fitness instructor Cody Rigsby has joined GM’s team of public influencers — pushing the EV transition.

GM is among a handful of automakers that has made a strong commitment to hydrogen fuel cells for the long term, along with Hyundai Motor and Toyota Motor. Germany’s BMW and Daimler have done significant work in the fuel cell area, as has Ford Motor – but in recent years all three have downplayed their commitment. Tesla’s bombastic CEO Elon Musk calls fuel cells “fool cells.”

The thing to remember is this: a hydrogen fuel cell is not a engine (as Canada’s Ballard Power misleadingly referred to the fuel cell two decades ago) but rather part of a larger a storage and extraction system for the electrons that run electric motor/s in cars. A fuel cell is, to be truthful, a sort of a battery by another name.

Hyundai and Toyota have emphatically committed to fuel cells for the long term, as the ultimate “green” automotive solution. GM has been more circumspect, though the company has plenty of technological expertise in this area.

Beyond fuel cells, however, GM’s battery electric commitment has enjoyed renewed emphasis and interest. Just days ago, GM announced a $2 billion manufacturing investment that will in part help pay for turning its old Saturn plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee into a manufacturing site to produce EVs – along with Factory ZERO in Detroit and Hamtramck, Michigan, and Orion Assembly in Orion Township, Michigan.

GM’s coming flagship EV, the $100,000-plus Cadillac LYRIQ, will be the first EV produced at Spring Hill. The bigger picture, still, will see GM launch some 30 new electrified vehicles by the end of 2025, says the company.

A new branding campaign featuring the public intellectual Malcolm Gladwell (The Tipping Point author) is also being launched in an effort to reposition GM as not a legacy car company with its roots in gas guzzlers, but a “progressive” one with “a vision that creates a world with zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion.” Isn’t that Volvo?

GM’s new logo is a stylized wall plug.

In any case, GM plans to throw a mountain of marketing dollars at promoting electrification in general and the company’s new Ultium platform in particular. All those 30 electrified vehicles ride on the Ultium platform. There’s even a new GM logo. It looks a bit like the old GM logo turned into a stylized wall plug. Clever.

Is this just another case of GM doing the same old, same old – promises made, only intermittently kept? Does GM pose a threat to the EV industry leader, Tesla? Will GM eventually sell an affordable EV, rather than a garage-full of Cadillacs? Can GM pull off what few 100-year-old companies have ever done – transition completely from the old to something new and current?

On the first question, GM is making billion-dollar investments in electrification, using the Cadillac brand as the tip of the spear in its push into the EV wars. That makes sense. Tesla made its mark with the luxurious and pricy Model S, and it now expanding into less expensive segments and pickups, too. GM, to be sure, does not want to lose its pickup business to Tesla.

Whether GM will make good on its EV promises remains to be seen. I generally look to leadership for clues to the possibility of success.

The top two executives at GM, CEO Mary Barra and president Mark Reuss, are GM lifers who were in senior positions during GM’s worst days a decade ago. If they lead the company into a brave new electrified world, one loaded with good feelings, growing market share and plenty of profits, it will be a story for Harvard Business Review and MBA students for decades to come. Not to be cruel, but I would just point out that Reuss was also the chief engineer on the Pontiac Aztec and going into bankruptcy, Barra was GM’s HR boss.

As for posing a threat to Tesla, well, while GM’s market cap – its stock market worth – is less than one-tenth that of Tesla, GM’s financial position is strong. In a sane world GM’s balance sheet would be the envy of Tesla and its egomaniacal boss, Musk.

In any event, a five-year investment in GM delivered a 59.8% return. Yes, Tesla has rewarded shareholders to the tune of a 700% return in the last year, but still, 12% annually is pretty good in a zero-inflation world.

GM for some years now has rewarded investors fairly and delivered a pattern of increasing sales and rising earnings per share. GM has dumped money-losing businesses all over the world and its Cruise investment in autonomous technology may yet pay off. The company’s five-year gross margin average of 16.6% is healthy enough, and its relative valuation is attractive versus its peers. It’s hard to fault GM’s overall consistent performance these last few years. GM is not a flashy company, but it is a solid one.

Public intellectual Malcolm Gladwell is on board.

In the car business, like most industries, however, if you’re treading water you’re likely soon to drown as more nimble, smarter competitors innovate their way to growth and profits – and take away your customers today. GM is trying to reinvent itself for the EV era. Good luck with that.

We’re talking about the sort of transition rarely pulled off by legacy companies in any industry.

 

 

 

 

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